For many years after the two-point conversion was adopted by the NFL, it was used sparingly in certain spots.
Then coaches, armed with analytical information, became more aggressive while the old guard struggled to figure out the logic. Is it worth going for two when you’re up seven points in the fourth quarter? Apparently so.
In reality, there wasn’t much difference between the Philadelphia Eagles being up 11 or being up 12 on Thursday night. But it was a huge difference for some bettors.
The over/under for the Eagles’ game against the Houston Texans landed on 45 at BetMGM. It was 45.5 at times during the week. It was going to be close in the fourth quarter. The Eagles scored with about 11 minutes to go to take a 27-17 lead. If the Eagles kicked the extra point, under bettors were still alive for at least a push and maybe a win if they bet it at 45.5.
The Eagles lined up for the extra point. That’s when things got weird.
The Texans were called for a neutral zone infraction with the Eagles lined up for the extra point. For many coaches, the extra yard closer to the end zone changes the math. Even though Sirianni was fine going up by 11 points moments before, now that he was half the distance to the goal line, he wanted to go up 12. He went for the two-point conversion.
The Eagles ran the play you’re getting sick of already, in which Jalen Hurts ran a quarterback sneak with a teammate pushing him in the back. The Eagles scored. That made the score 29-17 for 46 total points. That clinched the over.
To make under bettors feel even worse, that was the last score of the game. Had Houston simply not gone offsides on that extra point attempt, under bettors would have been fine.
It didn’t really matter in any way for the Eagles to win by 12 points instead of 11. But that additional point resulted in a pretty awful bad beat.